Adjustments in Future Interest Rates Reflect International and Local Movements

On this Wednesday, September 26, future interest rates in Brazil showed movements that aligned with developments in the United States. The main influencing factor was the US inflation report, which saw a higher deflator of PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) than anticipated by investors. In contrast, the deflation of the August IPCA-15 in Brazil was greater than expected but did not have as significant an impact on local rates. The analysis is based on data released by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the preliminary IPCA-15 report, reflecting how international markets still significantly influence investor decisions in Brazil. Ivo Chermont, Chief Economist of Quantitas, highlighted that while the movement was more pronounced in the US market, its impact on Brazilian future interest rates curves was limited due to the worse composition of the August IPCA-15. This global trend reflects an economic scenario where stable inflation is a priority for central banks worldwide, even with local variations as seen in the IPCA-15. Future interest rates in Brazil mirrored this international dynamics, showing slight increases across most curves. The DI contract for January 2027, for instance, oscillated from 13.675% to 13.67%, while other rates had minor fluctuations between 13.815% and 14.35%. In the US, a similar trend was observed with the decline of PCE deflator and an increase in the T-note of ten years. This interaction reflects a reality where economies are increasingly globalized but still subject to local peculiarities.