Dollar on the Move: Recovery in Line with Global Trends and Positive Outlook for Real

On Thursday's trading session, the dollar showed a mild recovery from its significant drop of the previous day. This trend aligned with movements among other major currencies globally, reflecting post-event market adjustments. While liquidity was lower than usual, contributing to a less dynamic trading environment, the dollar's value closed at R$ 5,1926, up by 0.32% compared to the previous close. The total volume traded in the dollar futures market today was US$ 24.4 billion, significantly less than August's average of US$ 28.8 billion. The recovery of the local currency occurred after the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in long-term bond repurchases, influencing both domestic and international exchange rates. Other factors contributing to this trend included the stability of the DXY index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, remaining at 98.886 points. For experts such as Gustavo Rostelato from Armor Capital, prospects for Brazil's currency are positive despite recent declines. Rostelato highlights that interest rate differentials still make Brazilian carry-trade attractive and there is an improvement in the commercial flow due to oil and foreign direct investment (FDI), which are helping mitigate current account deficits. However, the manager expects a negative performance of the currency during the election period with risk premium pressuring the dollar in the future but reiterates that positive fundamentals will continue to influence post-election scenarios. "The risk premium is likely to appear and will put pressure on the exchange rate, but the fundamentals remain positive, and we do not see strong capital outflows from Brazil, said Rostelato.