Economic Barometers in Focus: US and Brazil on Investors' Agenda

Wednesday stands as a pivotal day for assessing the global and domestic economic landscape, with investors' attention drawn to a series of activity indicators. In the United States, expectations center on the release of S&P Global's economic activity data for September. Such information is vital for calibrating projections regarding the performance of the world's largest economy, directly influencing expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy and, consequently, risk appetite in international financial markets.

On the Brazilian front, the agenda is equally robust, starting with the Consumer Price Index – Weekly (IPC-S) for the third quadrissemana of September, to be released by FGV. The previous reading, for the second quadrissemana of September 2026, registered an advance of 0.49%, bringing the accumulated 12-month increase to 3.76%. Notably, four out of eight expenditure classes components of the index showed a deceleration, with the 'Miscellaneous Expenses' group presenting a variation that shifted from 2.89% to 1.83% between the first and second quadrissemana of September 2026, a signal that may indicate a cooling of certain inflationary pressures. Additionally, IBGE will publish the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua), with Additional Characteristics of the Labor Market 2025, an essential barometer for understanding the dynamics of employment and income in the country.

The civil construction sector, a pillar of economic activity, will also be in the spotlight with CNI's Construction Industry Survey for September. Previous reports, referring to July and August 2026, already indicated a partial improvement in business expectations in August. Indices such as input purchases (50.1 points) and activity level (50.6 points) surpassed the 50-point mark, indicating expansion, while the number of employees reached neutrality (50.0 points). However, the new projects index retreated to 48.7 points, and the sector's Industrial Business Confidence Index (Icei), while having advanced 1.6 points to 47.2 points, remains below the optimism threshold, signaling that recovery is heterogeneous and still faces challenges to fully consolidate.

In summary, the conjunction of these indicators, both in the US and Brazil, will provide crucial insights for analysts and policymakers. The reading of American activity will influence global investment decisions, while inflation, labor market, and productive sector data in Brazil will be decisive for expectations regarding the trajectory of the benchmark interest rate and the pace of domestic economic growth. Monitoring these barometers is fundamental for anticipating market movements and adjusting economic strategies in a scenario of persistent uncertainties. Original source: Valor Econômico