Inflation Expectations Stable, but Household Financial Outlooks Deteriorate in the US

Recent data from the Federal Reserve of New York showed that inflation expectations for the coming years remained stable in August 2026. The projections for one year ahead stayed at 3.6%, while those for three years decreased slightly to 3.2%. However, perceptions of household finances deteriorated, with a greater percentage declaring worse financial conditions than a year ago and expecting similar circumstances in the future. This trend reflects growing concerns about economic stability and potential increases in living costs. Additionally, the probability perceived of not being able to pay minimum debt installments over the next three months increased, indicating less favorable financial and indebtedness conditions for consumers. These data also reflect mixed market labor expectations, with the average probability of losing a job in the coming 12 months reaching its lowest level since February last year, suggesting stable unemployment rates. Nonetheless, long-term economic expectations remain cautiously balanced on inflationary terms, signaling a persistent need for monetary adjustments to maintain economic equilibrium. Source: Valor Econômico