Sideways Economic Growth and Adhesive Inflation: Projections for the United States

Economists at TD Securities, Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir, have projected stable economic growth in the United States for 2026. This forecast is based on the persistent impact of the oil shock and risks associated with Iran, which are keeping the Federal Reserve on a cautious stance. It is expected that these factors will continue to pressurize economic growth but not significantly alter monetary policy until year-end. This analysis suggests an economy in the United States at equilibrium between inflationary pressures and production constraints, reflecting a global trend of moderate growth following years of widespread economic uncertainties. The situation remains closely monitored by investors and international markets, which are seeking clear signals on future U.S. monetary directives.