US Economy: Sideways Growth and Oil Shock Risks
TD Securities predicts sideways growth for the U.S. in 2026 due to persistent oil shock risks and geopolitical challenges. The probability of a recession over the next year is estimated at 25%. GDP is expected to close 2026 near 2.1% quarter-over-quarter, with unemployment remaining around 4.2%.
According to TD Securities' projections, the U.S. economy may face a period of stagnation in 2026. Persistent risks of another oil shock and geopolitical challenges, such as the conflict with Iran, suggest a volatile macroeconomic landscape. The bank forecasts that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will end 2026 at approximately 2.1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting an environment characterized by moderate stability and significant uncertainties. Additionally, unemployment is projected to remain around 4.2%. However, it's worth noting that TD Securities has assessed a probability of recession in the U.S. over the next year at 25%, signaling clear concern about the future of the global economy. In a broader context, these projections reflect a macroeconomic scenario marked by volatile oil markets and geopolitical tensions that could significantly impact global economic stability.
Source: FXStreet News